By Prosper Meneย
A new poll revealed that half of Tory members believe Kemi Badenoch should be ousted as leader before the next general election in 2029.
The findings which was published exclusively by Sky News and conducted by YouGov, expose deep fissures within the party’s ranks just months after Badenoch’s narrow victory in the leadership contest.
The survey of 652 Conservative members, carried out between September 26 and October 2, shows a near-even split on Badenoch’s future: 46% want her to remain at the helm, while a decisive 50% argue she should step aside. This “brutal” verdict, as described by Sky News’ chief political correspondent John Craig, shows a growing sense of despair among the grassroots, who fear the party faces electoral oblivion without a change at the top.
Just 14% of respondents believe the Conservatives can secure a majority in 2029, with 34% predicting a humiliating second-place finish behind Labour.
Badenoch, who triumphed over Robert Jenrick in the 2024 leadership race, now trails her rival in member preferences. When asked who they would favor as leader, 46% backed Jenrick compared to 39% for Badenoch, with 11% opting for neither. Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, emerges as the clear frontrunner among potential successors, beating out other contenders like former prime minister Boris Johnson (22% support in a successor poll) and shadow housing secretary James Cleverly (20%).
In head-to-head matchups, Jenrick holds comfortable leads, signaling a potential swift challenge if Badenoch falters further.The poll’s timing could not be more inopportune for Badenoch, whose first party conference as leader has been overshadowed by defections and dire polling.
On October 7, twenty Tory councillors jumped ship to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK , the latest in a string of high-profile exits that Badenoch dismissed as “shedding baggage” from the party’s 14-year stint in power.
Reform, which surged to prominence in the 2024 election by capitalizing on voter discontent over immigration and economic woes, now consistently outpolls the Conservatives nationally, with projections suggesting the Tories could be reduced to as few as 17 seats in a hypothetical vote today.
Adding fuel to the fire, 64% of Tory members endorse an electoral pact with Reform UK to avoid splitting the right-wing vote โ a non-starter for Badenoch, who has repeatedly ruled out any alliance with Farage, whom she accuses of harboring ambitions to “destroy” the Conservatives. Nearly two-thirds (73%) would even welcome a post-election coalition with Reform in a hung parliament.
Farage himself polls strongly among Tory members, with 53% viewing him favorably despite Badenoch’s opposition.Despite the personal favorability hit โ 70% of members hold a positive view of Badenoch, against 29% unfavorable โ the broader mood is one of pessimism. This echoes wider public sentiment: an Ipsos poll from early October found only 22% of Britons expect Badenoch to become prime minister, with 63% deeming it unlikely. Even among 2024 Conservative voters, nearly half (48%) share this skepticism. The party’s net favorability languishes at -36, its lowest on record, as Reform’s anti-establishment appeal continues to erode Tory support.
Badenoch’s allies, including Jenrick himself, have rallied to her defense, with the shadow justice secretary insisting she is the “right person” to lead despite the numbers.
For Badenoch, the message from her own members is unequivocal: adapt or be replaced.
